Pinnacle closing-line track record

How Pinnacle's closing prices fared against 3712 finished matches, 2026-06-15 to 2026-11-13. Updated 2026-11-13.

Pinnacle's closing favourite won 56.5% of the time, against the 56.1% its closing price implied on average. Matches were drawn 24.6% of the time against an implied 24.5%. The closing line was the more accurate forecast: its mean Brier score (0.516) is lower than the opening line's (0.518) by 0.0027, more than twice the standard error of 0.0011.

The closing price against the result

Calibration by closing probability

Did the closing line beat the opening line?

The closing line was the more accurate forecast: its mean Brier score (0.516) is lower than the opening line's (0.518) by 0.0027, more than twice the standard error of 0.0011.

Of the 3692 matches whose price moved, 52.8% moved toward what happened.

Biggest upsets

1. AL Hilal 0-2 Neom SC — Neom SC closed at 21.78 (4.3% implied), 2026-09-07, Saudi Pro League
2. Sporting Clube de Portugal 1-2 Académico de Viseu — Académico de Viseu closed at 10.58 (9.1% implied), 2026-10-25, Primeira Liga
3. Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1-2 Austin FC — Austin FC closed at 10.35 (9.3% implied), 2026-09-13, MLS
4. ADO Den Haag 2-1 PSV Eindhoven — ADO Den Haag closed at 9.69 (9.9% implied), 2026-10-17, Eredivisie
5. Hull City 2-0 Manchester United — Hull City closed at 9.00 (10.8% implied), 2026-08-22, English Premier League
6. Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-3 Bolton Wanderers — Bolton Wanderers closed at 8.53 (11.3% implied), 2026-10-13, Championship
7. Paris Saint-Germain 1-2 AS Monaco — AS Monaco closed at 8.40 (11.6% implied), 2026-09-04, Ligue 1
8. Cruz Azul 2-3 Atlante — Atlante closed at 8.13 (11.8% implied), 2026-08-02, Liga MX
9. Villarreal 0-1 Espanyol — Espanyol closed at 7.75 (12.5% implied), 2026-10-30, La Liga
10. VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Monchengladbach — Monchengladbach closed at 7.68 (12.6% implied), 2026-10-23, Bundesliga

By competition

How these numbers are computed

Data window. Every final across the competitions ScoreMon curates that kicked off in the 365 days before 2026-11-13; the matches that qualified run from 2026-06-15 to 2026-11-13. The study is recomputed once a day.

Which finals count. A football final is counted only when the last clock reading we recorded reached minute 89, the collector's evidence that full time was played; finals in other sports must pass the site's plausibility checks (no tied final in a sport that cannot end level). A final must also be the one the site publishes at its own result page, under the competition it belongs to. 4134 finals qualified.

Where the prices come from. Our archive records the two bookmakers as separate events, and only one of them carries the score. Each final is paired with the Pinnacle event for the same match. First by name: the same two teams (names normalised the way the live odds board merges the two books) on the same UTC date, with kickoff times no more than 30 minutes apart. Where no name matches exactly, by the odds board's own test for one game listed twice, among Pinnacle events filed under the same competition: the same sport and competition class, both sides recognisably the same teams, kickoffs no more than 15 minutes apart — and when Pinnacle lists the fixture the other way round, its prices are put back on the right teams. A final with two equally close candidates, a candidate whose sides cannot be told apart, or a Pinnacle event claimed by two finals is left out rather than guessed. 3737 of the 4134 finals found their Pinnacle event, 465 of them by the second test.

Opening and closing prices. The price is Pinnacle's full-time moneyline (1X2 where the sport can end level, home/away where it cannot). The closing price is the last one we recorded at or before kickoff; the opening price is the first one we recorded — not necessarily the first price Pinnacle posted, because our collector records a market from the moment it first sees it. The median match was first priced 28.2 hours before kickoff. A match counts only when every outcome has both an opening and a closing price: 3712 did.

Removing the margin.Each outcome's probability is its inverse price divided by the sum of the inverse prices of all outcomes (proportional normalisation), so the probabilities of one match add up to 100%.

The measures. The favourite is the outcome with the highest closing probability; a match where two outcomes tie for highest has no favourite. The draw row covers only sports that can end level. The calibration table places every outcome of every match in a band by its closing probability — lower bound included — and counts how often outcomes in that band happened. The Brier score of a match is the sum, over its outcomes, of the squared gap between the probability and what happened (1 for the outcome that occurred, 0 otherwise); 0 is a perfect forecast. The opening and closing scores are compared match by match, and a difference is called real only when it exceeds twice its standard error. "Moved toward the result" means the probability of what actually happened — the winner, or the draw — was higher at the close than at the open. The 10 biggest upsets are the winning teams with the lowest closing probability; each links its result page. The 95% ranges are Wilson score intervals.

Publication floor. A competition's numbers appear once 30 matches qualify; below that the page states what the archive holds and stays out of search results.

Window: 365 days. Pairing tolerance: 30 minutes by name, 15 by the second test. Pinnacle events examined: 71983. The companion study, bookmaker margins by league, measures what each book charges; this one measures how right the sharper book's last price was.