Bankroll Simulator
Run 1,000 simulations of your strategy — see how variance, unit size, and staking method affect your bankroll
What the simulation teaches
Variance is real. Even with a 55% win rate at 1.90 odds (+EV), you can experience 15+ bet losing streaks. The band between the 5th and 95th percentile shows the range of likely outcomes — not a single line. Professional bettors think in distributions, not certainties.
Unit size determines survival. At 5% units with flat staking, a 20-bet losing streak wipes your bankroll. At 2% units, you survive and recover. The bust rate statistic shows what percentage of 1,000 simulated bettors go broke.
Proportional > Flat. Proportional staking (betting X% of your current bankroll) automatically reduces bet size during downswings. This makes going bust nearly impossible — your bets shrink as your bankroll does. The tradeoff: slower recovery after drawdowns.
Try these experiments:(1) Set win rate to 50% at 1.90 odds — watch the bankroll bleed from the margin. (2) Compare 1% vs 5% units at the same edge. (3) Switch between Flat and Proportional to see the survival difference.
Common scenarios to simulate
Break-even bettor: 52.4% win rate at 1.91 odds, 2% units, 500 bets
Slight edge (CLV winner): 54% win rate at 1.95 odds, 2% units, 1000 bets
Strong sharp: 56% win rate at 1.90 odds, 3% units, 500 bets
Recreational disaster: 48% win rate at 1.85 odds, 10% units, 200 bets
Underdog hunter: 38% win rate at 3.00 odds, 1.5% units, 500 bets